Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Tim, Esti
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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The plots below show the probability of different precipitation types for Washington from 12 March 00z (left) and NYC from 13 march 00z (right). The plot for Washington shows a risk for freezing rain while the plot for NYC shows the risk for ice pellets.
The animation below, from DT 00Z 13th, shows "most probable precipitation type" at different instants, with associated probabilities for that type. It was created retrospectively on 27 Mar, following some SYNOP-based calibration of mimimum rate for different precipitation types (these are lower for ice-related ppn types than for rain). The algorithm shows dry (no shading) as most probable if prob of dry >50%. Darker colours highlight areas of greater confidence in the forecast type (higher probs). Clearly colours get lighter near New York, especially on Long Island, during the height of the storm, with wet snow and other types favoured at some pixels at some times. So the ENS was uncertain about ppn type, notably in southern parts of the city extent.
The plot below show the cyclone feature product for maximum snowfall.
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