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The plots below show EFI for precipitation for 24-26 May (3 days).
The plot below shows the evolution of forecasts of 3-day accumulated rainfall in Ratnapura valid 24-26 May. The blue box-and-whisker shows the ensemble distribution, the red dot the HRES forecast and the red box-and-whisker the climate distribution based on re-forecasts. The observed value was 535 mm, which is actually inside the ensemble distribution of the last forecast. Already the forecasts from 12 days before the event predicted a wet anomaly, but the uncertainty was large also for the shortest forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below shows the verification of precipitation anomalies in the monthly forecasts valid for the week 22-28 May. The forecasts shows enhanced precipitation in the Indian Ocean. Please note that the analysis is based on short forecasts that we found above also missed the precipitation event on southern Sri Lanka.
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