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The page will be updated as required. It was last changed on 2203.0607.2017.

For a record of changes made to this page please refer to  Document versions.

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The planned timetable for the implementation of the cycle 43r3 is as follows:

The timetable represents current expectations and may change in light of actual progress made.

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Comparison of scores between IFS cycle 43r3 and IFS cycle 43r1 for HRES and ENS can be found in the IFS Cycle 43r3 scorecard.

Results for the HRES from alpha- and beta-testing are positive, with many of the scores over NH, SH and Europe indicating statistically significant improvements at the 95% level up to about forecast day 5 when forecasts are verified against own analysis. When forecasts are verified against observations, the positive impact of 43r3 is also evident. Improvements are larger in summer than in winter and are to a large extent due to improvements in the humidity background error, as well as changes to the deep convection scheme and the aerosol climatology, which improved the temperature gradient between extra-tropics and tropics. Improvements are significant for temperature and vector wind throughout the extra-tropical troposphere. In the tropics there is some deterioration in temperature and humidity at certain vertical levels associated with the changes to the deep convection scheme. Surface parameters show partially statistically significant improvements both in the tropics and extra-tropics (2-m humidity, 10-m wind speed, total cloud cover, precipitation), except for 2-m temperature which shows neutral results.

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Results for the ENS based on alpha-testing are mainly positive and similar to the HRES both for upper-air and surface variables for the NH, SH, and Europe when verified against analysis. In the tropics there is some deterioration in upper tropospheric wind speed and lower tropospheric temperature associated with reduced spread. There are also some slight deteriorations in tropical 2-m temperature and precipitation scores. The scorecard for the ENS will be made available when we have completed more runs.

Changes in the tropical cyclone analysis are notable, with the cyclone structure defined in a better way. At forecast day 1 there is a marginally significant improvement in position error; the improvement is undetectable thereafter. Tropical cyclone intensity (as measured by central pressure) is slightly reduced from day 2 onwards: for lead times beyond four days this has a beneficial effect since it reduces the existing negative bias in tropical cyclone central pressure in such forecasts.

Technical details of the new cycle

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The GRIB model identifiers (generating process identification number) for cycle 43R3 will be changed as follows:

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• Internet transfers: 193.61.196.104 ( ecpds-xma.ecmwf.int ) 193.61.196.105 ( ecpds-xmb.ecmwf.int ) 193.61.196.113 ( ecpds-xmc.ecmwf.int )
  
• RMDCN transfers: 136.156.8.132 ( mspds-dm4.ecmwf.int )

The IFS Cycle 43r3 test products are available as version number 71 (file names ending with '71'). The test products are generated daily, shortly behind real-time from both the 00UTC and 12UTC runs and based on the operational dissemination requirements and the IFS Cycle 43r3 test data for HRES, ENS, HRES-WAM, ENS-WAM and HRES-SAW.

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Web charts based on IFS cycle 43r3 test data will be available as soon as possibleare available. They can be viewed by first selecting the chart in the Charts Catalogue, and then choosing the Suite Model run tab above the chart, then selecting "Esuite:0071New cycle (IFS 43r3)". The chart types which have 43r3 data available are those for which the icon representing the chart includes a grey arrow, as illustrated hereafter:

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All these charts are clickable. Note that if you click on an "Esuite:0071" (cycle 43r3) a Cycle 43r3 chart then the location products you see, such as meteograms, will be generated from that suite. If you change back on the Suite Model run tab to operational, then click "OK" on the location product window, the product will be re-created using operational model data.

ENS meteograms based on IFS cycle 43r3 test data

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ENS Meteograms based on IFS cycle 43r3 test data are available.  They can be plotted by choosing 'New cycle (IFS43r3IFS 43r3)' under the tab named 'Model run' on the  interactive ENS meteogram page 

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Member State users of the  "Simple time-critical jobs" framework can test that their scripts will work with the IFS Cycle 43r3 test data by using the special 'events' set up for this purpose:

For these events, MSJ_EXPVER environment variable is set to 0071 and can be used to specify the IFS Cycle 43r3 test data any MARS retrievals.

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