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2. Description of the event
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The loop below shows satellite images from 29 June 06z to 30 June 06z.
The plot below shows 24-hour precipitation observations from 30 June 06z provided from DWD. The maximum report from Berlin was 197 mm, but the observations ranges from 79-197 mm inside the metropolitan. The second plot shows the observations available for verification at ECMWF.
3. Predictability
3.3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 24-hour precipitation valid 29 June 06z to 30 June 06z from HRES forecasts with different initial times, with the same colour scale as the observation plot above.with the exception of the forecast from 28 June 00z, all forecasts from 25 June 12z and onwards had a precipitation maximum above 100 mm, but with different locations.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation on 29 June from different initial dates.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution for 48-hour precipitation in Berlin valid 29-30 June. Although all forecast from 24 June could be considered wet, only the last forecast before the event really highlighted the extreme of the event. Especially the forecast from 28 June 12z was problematic.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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