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The plots below show 24-hour precipitation in the first 12 ensemble members from forecasts initialised 29 June 06z from ECMWF (left), DMI (middle) and DWD (right). The plots from all systems highlight the short-range uncertainty for this case
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Good medium-range detection of "wet day" and risk for extreme precipitation
- Large short-range uncertainties in the location of the maximum rainfall
- Problematic forecast fro 28 June 12z
6. Additional material
The attach file shows plots provided from DWD via Thomas Schumann: Sevweathercatalogue_20170630.pdf