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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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1. Impact
Weekly temperature anomalies over SE Europe were between 6 and 10C.
Weekly temperature anomalies derived from observations with respect to 20-year climatology.
Temperatures in some places exceeded 40C.
Maximum temperatures in 1st July 2017.
The end of the heatwave was followed by an outbreak of severe thunderstorms that started on 2nd July and continued on the 3rd July affecting Bulgaria and southern Romania. A lot of lightning activity, large hail, strong wind gusts and excessive rain accompanied severe convective storms. Hail stones of up to 5 cm destroyed the crops caused damage in few places in central northern Bulgaria.
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More than 100 mm in less than 48 hours were measured in some places in Northern Bulgaria and in the high valleys of Western Bulgaria, causing flash flooding. The worst affected regions were Samokov , in western Bulgaria and Pleven and Lovech districts in Northern Bulgaria.
Rainfall totals 02/07/17 6Z-03/07/17 6Z (left), 03/07/17 6Z-04/07/17 6Z (middle) and 02/07/17 6Z-04/07/17 6Z (right).
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An extreme heatwave occurred over south-east Europe in the last week of June. The peak of the heatwave was at the beginning of July when a ridge built from northern Africa towards SE Europe.
Z500 weekly anomalies for the week started on 26 June 2017.
Z500/T850 0/12Z analyses valid for the week started on 26 June 2017.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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3.3 ENS
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The EFI for weekly mean temperature provided a strong signal for week 1 and week 2. Positive SOT values were present up to week 2.5 forecast which is an indicator that some really extreme temperatures were present in the forecast.
EFI for weekly mean 2t v. observations.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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