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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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1. Impact
Weekly temperature anomalies over SE Europe were between 6 and 10C. The evolution of the heat wave can be seen on daily mean temperature anomalies.
Weekly mean temperature anomalies derived from observations with respect to 20-year climatology.
Daily mean temperature anomalies.
Temperatures in some places exceeded 40C.
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The EFI for 2-metre maximum temperature was pretty high for the hottest day, 1st July even 10-days in advance especially positive SOT which indicate a possibility of extreme heat.
The EFI/SOT for 2-metre maximum temperature, day+7 to day+10.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
Positive temperature anomalies over SE Europe are in the right place 2 weeks in the medium range, up to day+15 and although the signal goes further in the forecast at least for a part of the region affected by the heat wave. Another interesting finding is that observed anomalies (with respect to 20-year climatology) differ significantly from the analysed anomalies (with respect to ERA-Interim) in some regions. The heat wave in the analysis looks less extreme compared to the observed anomalies.
Monthly forecast weekly temperature anomalies.
The EFI for weekly mean temperature provided a strong signal for week 1 and week 2. Positive SOT values were present up to week 2.5 forecast which is an indicator that some really extreme temperatures were present in the forecast.
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