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The plot below shows observations of 24-hour maximum wind gusts on 11 August. Note the observations of above 30 m/s in northern Poland
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plot below shows the 24-hour maximum wind gusts from the last HRES forecast before the event. The maximum wind gusts in the forecast are nowhere near the observed values in northern Poland.
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The plot below shows observations of 24-hour precipitation and the last HRES forecast and DWD COSMO 2.5km model.
3.
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3 ENS
The plots below show CAPE/SHEAR EFI valid for 11 August.
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3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
The plot below shows the 3-hour wind gusts from COSMO-DWD 2.5 ensemble (member 1) from 11 August 12z 6-9h.The model generated gusts up to 49 m/s.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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