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The page will be updated as required. It was last changed on 0108.09.2017
For a record of changes made to this page please refer to Document versions.
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| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 05 July 2017 | Initial announcement. Data available in MARS |
| mid 08 September 2017 | Availability of test data in dissemination |
| early 05 November 2017 | Expected date of implementation |
The timetable represents current expectations and may change in light of actual progress made.
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We have made good progress with the beta testing and aim to enter release candidate testing by the 8th of September. SEAS5 re-forecast data are fully available in MARS. Forecast data will become available in MARS and through dissemination. Graphical products will also be made available on our website
New release day for SEAS5 data
We are pleased to announce that the SEAS5 products (data and charts) will be released 3 days earlier, on the 5th of each month at 12UTC. System 4 products are currently released on the 8th of each month.
Summary description of SEAS5
acknowledge the contribution of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) in the production of SEAS5. C3S provided the computer time for the generation of the re-forecasts for SEAS5 and for the production of the ocean reanalysis (ORAS5), used as initial conditions for the SEAS5 re-forecasts. SEAS5 will be the ECMWF contribution to the C3S multi-model seasonal forecast products, see paragraph 'SEAS5 and Copernicus services'.
Current Status
SEAS5 has now entered release candidate testing. The re-forecast data are fully available in MARS and Forecast data are also available in MARS and through dissemination. Graphical products will shortly be made available on our website
New release day for SEAS5 data
We are pleased to announce that the SEAS5 products (data and charts) will be released 3 days earlier, on the 5th of each month at 12UTC. System 4 products are currently released on the 8th of each month.
Summary description of SEAS5
With a few exceptions, SEAS5 is configured to be identical to the extended part of the ENS, as implemented with IFS Cycle 43r1. In particular, the same resolution is used for both the monthly and seasonal forecast ranges. However, while the ENS will be regularly upgraded over the next few years with each new cycle of the IFS, the SEAS5 will remain fixed at IFS Cycle 43r1. Previous seasonal forecast systems have had a lifetime of about 5 years, and although future upgrades of SEAS may happen more often there is not yet a planned date for the introduction of SEAS6.
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| paramId | name |
|---|---|
| 140220 | Mean wave period based on the first moment |
| 140221 | Mean wave period based on the second moment |
| 140244 | Mean square slope of waves |
| 140249 | 10 m wind direction (no calculation of monthly mean/max/min/SD) |
Impact of SEAS5 on users
Software
EMOSLIB version 443, GRIB API version 1.17.0 or ecCodes version 2.0.0 are the minimum versions recommended to manipulate all SEAS5 fields.
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Test SEAS5 Forecast data in MARS
- SEAS5 technical test data are available in MARS with experiment version 9001 (MARS keyword EXPVER=9001) for the runs of May, June and July 2017 at 00UTC.
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- The data can be accessed in MARS from:
- Atmospheric forecasts (class=od, stream=mmsf, expver=9001, system=5, method=1)
- Wave forecasts (class=od, stream=wasf, expver=9001, system=5, method=1)
- Atmospheric monthly means (class=od, stream=msmm, expver=9001)
- Wave monthly means (class=od, stream=swmm, expver=9001)
Seasonal forecast monthly anomalies (class=od, stream=mmsa, expver=9001)
Only registered users with access to MARS with permission to access real-time data will be able to access these test data sets.
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The SEAS5 Forecast beta release data are intended for testing technical aspects and should not be used for operational forecasting. Please report any problems you find with these data to User Support.
Release candidate SEAS5 data will be have been archived in MARS from January 2017 onwards with experiment version 0001. This archiving should be complete before the 8th of September.
Test real-time SEAS5 data in dissemination
SEAS5 data will soon become available in dissemination.
Users of ECMWF dissemination products can request new SEAS5 products at https://ecaccess.ecmwf.int:7443/do/product/requirements. Note that the SEAS5 requirements now include the directive 'SYSTEM=5'. Any change will be effective with the next run of SEAS5..
SEAS5 T319/O320 products can be requested in their original representation as well as in the previously supported representations in System 4.
Supported latitude/longitude resolutions in the System 5 are:
- multiplies of 0.4/0.4 degrees (as the third leg of the monthly forecast)
- multiplies of 0.75/0.75 degrees, to provide seamless transition from the Seasonal System 4 (current resolution)
Where possible, we would advise users to request the native (Octahedral) resolutions.
SEAS5 test dissemination file names will have EXPVER '9001' as the last part of the file name, e.g. ALL0801000010______9001, to distinguish between operational files ending with '1', e.g. ALL0801000010______1. Note however that the GRIB messages in the SEAS5 test dissemination data will contain the key expver=0001.
SEAS5 test dissemination files are queued into ECPDS in delayed (standby) mode. Users can trigger the transmission of wanted test products at their convenience by logging into the test ECPDS system at https://ecpds-xmonitor.ecmwf.int/ in the usual manner. In order to receive the test products, users will have to open their firewall to the relevant ECPDS Data Movers:
At the moment, SEAS5 test products generated are based on the current (SYSTEM=4) dissemination requirements. Users wishing to test new System 5 products or request fields at a higher resolution can change their requirements as explained above. GRIB headers fully reflect the generating process (systemNumber=5, methodNumber=1).
SEAS5 test data will be made available in dissemination for August, September and October 2017.
| Note |
|---|
| On the day of SEAS5 implementation into ECMWF operations, currently expected for November 2017, no test requirements will be carried into operational mainframe. Users wishing to make their modified test SEAS5 requirements operational on the implementation date will have to let ECMWF (Data Services) know two weeks prior to the announced implementation date. |
Parallel run of System 4 and SEAS5
SEAS5 has run for May, June, July 2017 in beta testing (experiment=9001). SEAS5 will run in near real-time from September onwards. SEAS5 data will then become available shortly after the System 4 data have been released.
On the switch-over date, presently expected to be for the November run, SEAS5 will become the operational system. The SEAS5 dissemination file names will then end with EXPVER '1'. System 4 will continue to be run as a near real-time system, for a limited period of time. Data from System 4 will be available from MARS and, for those interested, through dissemination on request. Those interested should contact Data Services at ECMWF. On the implementation date of SEAS5, users who requested to keep getting System 4 data though dissemination will receive both the SEAS5 and System 4 files via ECPDS, with the System4 file names including EXPVER '9004', e.g. ALL1101000010______9004.
| Note |
|---|
| The release date of these '9004' files in ECPDS will remain the 8th of each month at 12UTC. |
We intend to stop running System 4 before March 2018. Users are advised to make sure that all their applications are switched to using SEAS5 data as soon as possible after the implementation.
Graphical display of SEAS5 test forecasts
:
- Atmospheric forecasts (class=od, stream=mmsf, expver=001, system=5, method=1)
- Wave forecasts (class=od, stream=wasf, expver=001, system=5, method=1)
- Atmospheric monthly means (class=od, stream=msmm, expver=001)
- Wave monthly means (class=od, stream=swmm, expver=001)
Seasonal forecast monthly anomalies (class=od, stream=mmsa, expver=001)
Only registered users with access to MARS with permission to access real-time data will be able to access these test data sets.
Test real-time SEAS5 data in dissemination
SEAS5 test data are now available in dissemination for the run of August 2017 onwards. SEAS5 test dissemination files are queued into ECPDS in delayed (standby) mode. Users can trigger the transmission of wanted test products at their convenience by logging into the test ECPDS system at https://ecpds-xmonitor.ecmwf.int/ in the usual manner. In order to receive the test products, users will have to open their firewall to the relevant ECPDS Data Movers:
SEAS5 test dissemination file names will have EXPVER '9001' as the last part of the file name, e.g. ALL0801000010______9001, to distinguish with the operational file names ending with '1', e.g. ALL0801000010______1. Note however that the GRIB messages in the SEAS5 test dissemination data will contain the key expver=0001. GRIB headers fully reflect the generating process (systemNumber=5, methodNumber=1).
At the moment, SEAS5 test data are generated based on the current (SYSTEM=4) dissemination requirements. Users wishing to test new SEAS5 products or to request fields at a higher resolution can change their requirements at https://ecaccess.ecmwf.int:7443/do/product/requirements. Note that the SEAS5 requirements now include the directive 'SYSTEM=5'. Any changes made will be effective with the next run of SEAS5.
SEAS5 T319/O320 products can be requested in their original representation as well as in the previously supported representations in System 4. Supported latitude/longitude resolutions in the System 5 are:
- multiplies of 0.4/0.4 degrees (as the third leg of the monthly forecast)
- multiplies of 0.75/0.75 degrees, to provide seamless transition from the Seasonal System 4 (current resolution)
Where possible, we would advise users to request the native (Octahedral) resolutions.
| Note |
|---|
| On the day of SEAS5 implementation into ECMWF operations, currently expected for November 2017, no test requirements will be carried into the operational mainframe. Users wishing to make their modified test SEAS5 requirements operational on the implementation date will have to let ECMWF (Data Services) know two weeks prior to the announced implementation date. |
Parallel run of System 4 and SEAS5
SEAS5 has run for May, June, July 2017 in beta testing (experiment=9001). SEAS5 will run in near real-time from September onwards. SEAS5 data will then become available shortly after the System 4 data have been released.
On the switch-over date, presently expected to be for the November run, SEAS5 will become the operational system. The SEAS5 dissemination file names will then end with EXPVER '1'. System 4 will continue to be run as a near real-time system, for a limited period of time. Data from System 4 will be available from MARS and, for those interested, through dissemination on request. Those interested should contact Data Services at ECMWF. On the implementation date of SEAS5, users who requested to keep getting System 4 data though dissemination will receive both the SEAS5 and System 4 files via ECPDS, with the System4 file names including EXPVER '9004', e.g. ALL1101000010______9004.
| Note |
|---|
| The release date of these '9004' files in ECPDS will remain the 8th of each month at 12UTC. |
We intend to stop running System 4 before March 2018. Users are advised to make sure that all their applications are switched to using SEAS5 data as soon as possible after the implementation.
Graphical display of SEAS5 test forecasts
Graphical products from the seasonal forecast system are displayed on the Forecast Charts pages of the ECMWF website. We will make the SEAS5 graphical products available on the ECMWF website as soon as possible.
Time-critical applications
Member State users of the "Simple time-critical jobs" framework can test that their scripts will work with the SEAS5 test data by using the new 'event' set up.
| Event ID | Event name | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 1763 | seasonal5_fc | At this stage, the system 5 Seasonal Forecast real time products have been updated. |
Users are reminded to change the directive 'SYSTEM=5' in their MARS requests.
SEAS5 in EUROSIP
EUROSIP, the Multi-model seasonal forecast, will use SEAS5 data as soon as SEAS5 will have been implemented in operations.
SEAS5 and Copernicus services
The C3S is currently in a proof-of-concept phase and the data services for the Copernicus users are being developed. At the moment, for seasonal forecasts, graphical products only are available on the C3S web site (https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts). In early 2018, it is expected that SEAS5 data on a 1-degree resolution grid will be freely available for download from C3S on the 10th of each month, 5 days after the SEAS5 products are available through the normal ECMWF dissemination mechanismsGraphical products from the seasonal forecast system are displayed on the Forecast Charts pages of the ECMWF website. We will make the SEAS5 graphical products available on the ECMWF website with the release candidate testing.
References
Madec G (2008) NEMO ocean engine. Tech. rep., Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), URL https://www.nemo-ocean.eu/doc/
Good, S. A., M. J. M., and R. N. A., 2013: EN4: Quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,118, 6704–6716, doi:10.1002/2013JC009067.
Fichefet T,Maqueda MAM (1997) Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics. Journal of Geophysical Research 102(C6):12,609–12,646, DOI 10.1029/97JC00480,URL http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/97JC00480
Balmaseda MA, Mogensen K, Weaver AT (2013) Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139(674):1132{1161
Steffen Tietsche, Magdalena a. Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, and Kristian Mogensen. Arctic sea ice in the global eddy-permitting ocean reanalysis ORAP5. Climate Dynamics, jun 2015. ISSN 0930-7575. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2673-3. URL http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-015-2673-3.
Hao Zuo, Magdalena A Balmaseda, and Kristian Mogensen. The new eddy-permitting ORAP5 ocean reanalysis: description, evaluation and uncertainties in climate signals. Climate Dynamics, 2015. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2675-1. URL http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2675-1.
Zuo, H., M.A. Balmaseda, E. Boisseson and S. Hirahara, 2017: A new ensemble generation method for ocean reanalyses. ECMWF Technical Memorandum 795.
Zuo et al 2018 (in preparation)
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| Date | Reason for update |
|---|---|
| 05.07.2017 |
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| 0131.0908.2017 |
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| 08.09.2017 |
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