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The plot below shows the evolution of our forecasts for the landfall on Florida. The figure shows the longitude of each ensemble members (blue), HRES (red) and control forecast (green) at the time they crossed 25N (height of Miami). The size of each dot is scaled to the strength of the cyclone at the crossing time. I have also included the observed point (black) and the width of Florida (dashed lines).
The plot below shows the evolution of ensemble and HRES forecasts for 48-hour maximum wind gusts (5 September 00z to 7 September 00z) for Sint Marteen/Saint Martin.
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