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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
1. Impact
On 9 16 October the extra-tropical extension of the tropical cyclone Ophelia hit south-western Ireland. The 10-minute mean wind reached of 31 m/s at Roches Point, off Cork, and gusts of up to 43 m/s over land. 3 people were killed by the storm.
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show the 24-hour maximum wind gusts for 16 October and the MSLP valid at 12UTC on 16 October from HRES forecasts. The first plot shows observations of 24-hour maximum wind gusts.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tropical cyclone product for Ophelia.
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 16 October.
The plot below shows the evolution of the forecasts for 24-hour maximum wind gusts on 16 October in Cork.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- The risk well captured 6 days in advance
- The magnitude of wind gusts over land well predicted