Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Linus, Ivan
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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The plot below shows the satellite image from Meteosat channel 9 from 15UTC on 27 July and corresponding simulated satellite image from a 9 hour forecast.
European Severe Database (ESWD) reports and ATDnet lightning density valid for 27 July 2017 are shown below. There are 3 reports from Istanbul for heavy rain, large hail and damaging lightning.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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The plots below show forecasts of 24-hour maximum wind gusts for 27 July.
(Add observation plot)
3.3 ENS
EFI for CAPE-shear is shown below starting from T+156-180h to T+0-24h. All the forecasts are valid for 27 July 2017.
EFI for CAPE is shown below starting from T+156-180h to T+0-24h. All the forecasts are valid for 27 July 2017.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Good medium-range signal in the CAPE EFI.
- Probably under-predicted the strength of the convection
- Missed the wind gust part of the convective event