Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Linus, Tim
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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1. Impact
On 29-30 April a cyclone formed over France and moved northwards. In front on the cyclone severe convection appeared with reported tornado over Belgium. The cyclone itself led to heavy rain along the French, Belgium and the Netherlands. However, 1-3 days before the main part of the rain was predicted to fall over southern England.
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The plot below shows the 24-hour maximum wind gusts during 29 April. One station in Belgium reported more than 40 m/s.
Severe weather reports and ATDnet lightning density on 29 April 2018. Two tornadoes have been reported - one in NE France and another one over SE Belgium.
3. Predictability
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The plots below shows the evolution for 24-hour precipitation on 30 April for Rotterdam (left) and Reading (right) for ensemble (blue) and HRES (red dot). Then the western edge shifted in the last forecasts before the event, Reading became on the dry side while the rain appeared further to the east (e.g Rotterdam) instead.
Convective hazards forecasts valid for 29 April picked up severe convection 4 to 5 days in advance.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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