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Comparison of scores of model cycle 38r2 (combination of research experiments and the current e-suite) and cycle 38r1 (the current operational model) verified by the respective analyses or radiosonde observations at 00UTC for combined periods from 1 January 2012 to 31 March 2012 and from 1 June 2012 to 23 April 2013.
Anomaly Correlation | RMS Error | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Europe | against analysis | Relative humidity | 300hPa | ||
700hPa | |||||
Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
500hPa | |||||
850hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
Wind | 200hPa | ||||
850hPa | |||||
Geopotential | 100hPa | ||||
500hPa | |||||
850hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | |||
500hPa | |||||
850hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
Wind | 200hPa | ||||
850hPa | |||||
Geopotential | 100hPa | ||||
500hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
Northern hemisphere extra-tropics | against analysis | 10m wind over ocean | |||
Ocean wave period | |||||
Ocean wave height | |||||
Relative humidity | 300hPa | ||||
700hPa | |||||
Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
500hPa | |||||
850hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
Wind | 200hPa | ||||
850hPa | |||||
Geopotential | 100hPa | ||||
500hPa | |||||
850hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | |||
500hPa | |||||
850hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
Wind | 200hPa | ||||
850hPa | |||||
Geopotential | 100hPa | ||||
500hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
Southern hemisphere extra-tropics | against analysis | 10m wind over ocean | |||
Ocean wave period | |||||
Ocean wave height | |||||
Relative humidity | 300hPa | ||||
700hPa | |||||
Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
500hPa | |||||
850hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
Wind | 200hPa | ||||
850hPa | |||||
Geopotential | 100hPa | ||||
500hPa | |||||
850hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | |||
500hPa | |||||
850hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
Wind | 200hPa | ||||
850hPa | |||||
Geopotential | 100hPa | ||||
500hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
Tropics | against analysis | 10m wind over ocean | |||
Ocean wave period | |||||
Ocean wave height | |||||
Relative humidity | 300hPa | ||||
700hPa | |||||
Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
500hPa | |||||
850hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
Wind | 200hPa | ||||
850hPa | |||||
against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | |||
500hPa | |||||
850hPa | |||||
1000hPa | |||||
Wind | 200hPa | ||||
850hPa |
Score card provides a quick visual overview over the performance of the experiment scores compared to control. It is a simplified summary of verify error plots of various domains, scores, parameters etc.
Each error plot is converted into a sequence of symbols (e.g. ) where each symbol indicates for given time step whether or not the experiment is significantly better or worse than the control.
Symbol legend: for a given forecast step... (d: score difference, s: confidence interval width)
Cy38r2 far better than Cy38r1 statistically significant (the confidence bar above zero by more than its height )(d/s>3)
Cy38r2 better than Cy38r1 statistically significant (d/s≥1)
Cy38r2 better than Cy38r1, yet not statistically significant (d/s≥0.5)
not really any difference between Cy38r2 and Cy38r1
Cy38r2 worse than Cy38r1, yet not statistically significant (d/s≤-0.5)
Cy38r2 worse than Cy38r1 statistically significant (d/s≤-1)
Cy38r2 far worse than Cy38r1 statistically significant (the confidence bar below zero by more than its height) (d/s<-3)
Statistical significance evaluated by paired t-test for 95% significance level.