Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Ivan, Linus
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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The plots below show observations of precipitation type and short forecasts from HRES and ENS.
The radiosonde observations from Bucharest taken at 23:14 UTC on 24 January reveal a warm layer (temperatures above freezing) between 910 hPa and 860 hPa.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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The plots below show precipitation type meteogram for Bucharest and a forecast tephigram for 21Z on 24 January. Please note the layer of above freezing in the tephigram.
HRES pretty accurately represented the vertical profile in the area affected by freezing rain. The warm layer in the model was slightly deeper than the observed one.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show probabilities of dominating precipitation type for Bucharest. The last forecast had very high probabilities for freezing rain, with being lower in the earlier one. But it is worth to notice the early signal of the risk for freezing rain 6 days in advance.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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