Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Linus, David L., Jonny, Polly
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
In the end of February north-western Europe experienced extreme daily maximum temperatures, and for the first time the temperature reached 20 degrees during a winter month in UK. Also in Sweden the February record was broken an possible other countries as well. The hot period over UK lasted from 23 to 27 February. It is worth noting that the nights where cold with freezing temperatures in Reading.
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plot below shows evaluation of 2-metre temperature, net radiation and 10-metre wind speed for forecasts (red) and observations (blue) for Reading University. The forecast clearly underestimated the daily maximum temperature and overestimated the wind speed.
The plot below show mean error of daily maximum temperature for 24-27 February, in short-range HRES forecasts. The verification shows clearly the underestimation of the daily maximum temperature in north-western Europe.
The plots below show verification of short-range forecasts for Cabauw (the Netherlands) on 24-27 February. The first plots below show time-series of air (left) and soil temperature (right) at different levels. The second row shows composites of diurnal cycle over the 4 days for air (left) and soil temperature (right) at different levels and the third row composites of vertical profiles at 03z, 09z , 15z ans 21z. The atmospheric near-surface temperature was underestimated in the forecasts during the afternoons and somewhat high night-time. For the soil temperature we find the opposite pattern with too warm soil day-time and too cold night-time. One can also note that the forecasts were too cold at 200 metres level all times of the day.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for the maximum temperature on 26 February from different initial times.
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