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Discussed in the following Daily reports:

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1. Impact

On 26 may the regions around Stockholm, Sweden experienced heavy rainfall, with local flash floods as a result. The region got 45-50 mm and locally up to 60 mm.

2. Description of the event

The plot below shows observations of 24-hour precipitation in SYNOP observations (from www.ogimet.com)

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The plot below shows the interpolated daily precipitation on 26 May from SMHI. 

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The plot below shows the radar image from 26 May 12UTC from SMHI.

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The plots below show analyses of MSLP and short forecasts of precipitation from 25 May 00UTC to 27 May 00UTC. The heavy rainfall on 26 May as associated with a frontal system approaching from south, with a secondary cyclone forming over the eastern Sweden.

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The plots below show EFI for 24-hour precipitation on 26 May in forecasts from different initial dates.

The plot below show the evolution of forecasts for 24-hour precipitation in a 1x1 degree box around Stockholm (see outline in the plots above) on 26 May. The plot includes HRES (red dot), ENS CF (purple dot) ENS distribution (blue box-and-whisker) and model climatology (red box-and-whisker). The forecast system started to pick up the signal around 22 May, got more intense on 23 May 12UTC and made a final jump on 25 May 12UTC.

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The plots below show cyclone feature plots valid 26 May 12UTC, with the colour of the cyclone position dependent on the maximum rainfall associated with the feature.

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