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The plots below show analyses for z500 and T850 from 24 June to 1 July.
The plot below shows time-series of T850 inside the box 49-51N,122W-120W (see outline in the EFI plots below) from March to October (see Day of the year on x-axis) for 2021 - green, 2020 -blue and 2019red. The thin lines are daily values and bold lines are 7 day running mean.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show the pre-operational HRES "heat health hazard" forecasts, based on the Universal Thermal Climate Index, which represents the thermal stress of the human body. Based on air temperature, humidity, wind speed and mean radiant temperature (which represents how human beings experience radiant fluxes). Plots show the 3-day maximum UTCI over 28-30 June.
Scale: >46 = extreme heat stress (you must cool your body down immediately, drink as much as possible and stop any physical activity in order to prevent heat stroke), 38-46 = very strong heat stress, 32-38 = strong heat stress, 26-32 = moderate heat stress, 9-26=no thermal stress, 0-9 = slight cold stress, 0- -13 = moderate cold stress, -13 - -27 = strong cold stress, -27 - 40 = very strong cold stress, < -40 = extreme cold stress.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show forecasts (HRES - red, ENS CF - blue) and observations (black) for Lytton, Canada (50N, 121W) in forecast from 23 June (top) with 6-hourly output and from 28 June with 1-hourly output.
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