Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Tim H., Bojan
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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The plots below show EFI for 1-day precipitation 14 October, from different initial times. Corfu is located on the north-western flank of the wet region. For longer lead times, the EFI signal was shifted to the east for the 14 October, and missed Corfu (timing issue?).
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation valid 14 October over Curfu (0.5x0.5 degree box). HRES –red, ENS CF – purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts, and the green hourglass the mean of the observations..
The plot below shows the same as above but for Athens.
The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation 13-15 October, from different initial times. Also allowing for a longer time window, Corfu was still on the edge of the region with an early signal.
The plots below show forecasts of dominating flow pattern over the Mediterranean, based on Mastrantonas et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6985). Also early forecasts (from 4 October and onwards), predicted a cyclic pattern over central-eastern Mediterranean (Sicilian low, Balkan Low or Black Sea Low).
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
24-hour precipitation from 14 October 00UTC for models participating in SEE-MHEWS-A. IFS (1st), Aladin (2nd), ICON (3rd) and NMMB (4th). All models are initialised from ECMWF analysis.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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