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Medium-range output
A wide range of medium range (Day0-Day15) ENS ensemble products are available. These allow the user to Users can observe the variation among ENS ensemble member forecasts, and the consistency or otherwise with previous ENS ensemble solutions. Output data is presented in many ways enabling the user to discern allowing assessment the probability of different forecast scenarios. In turn, this allows the forecaster to provide customers with tailored forecasts, that . These may be detailed (especially at shorter lead-times), but also with information regarding on the uncertainty of that forecast. Chart output represents particular ENS members, or highlights in some "post-processed" form
Ensemble output shows:
- individual ensemble members with post-processing highlighting similarities and/or differences between
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- members.
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- meteograms and plumes for user-selected locations
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- .
- probabilities of track and intensity of tropical cyclone and extra-tropical
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- cyclones.
- probabilities of parameters exceeding a threshold (e.g. temperature, gusts, snowfall)
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- .
- probabilities relating to precipitation type.
Availability
Dissemination schedule
Based Forecast Time 06UTC Time Available | Based Forecast time 12UTC Time Available | Based Forecast Time 18UTC Time Available | Based Forecast time 00UTC Time Available | |
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Forecast Day 0 | 12:40 | 18:40 | 00:40 | 06:40 |
Forecast Day 1 | 12:44 | 18:44 | 00:44 | 06:44 |
Forecast Day 2 | 12:48 | 18:48 | 00:48 | 06:48 |
Forecast Day 3 | 12:52 | 18:52 | 00:52 | 06:52 |
Forecast Day 10 | 19:20 | 07:20 | ||
Forecast Day 15 | 19:40 | 07:40 | ||
Derived products Step 0 to 240 | 19:41 | 07:41 | ||
Derived products Step 246 to 360 | 20:01 | 08:01 |
Forecast intervals and time ranges
Forecast time step | Base Time | |
T+0h to T+90h | Hourly | 00/06/12/18 UTC |
T+93h to T+144h | 3-hourly | 00/06/12/18 UTC |
T+150h to T+360h | 6-hourly | 00/12 UTC |
Additional Sources of Information
More information on products available from the atmospheric model ensemble, medium range forecast (Set III - ENS) are available on the ECMWF website.