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The plots below show 48-hour precipitation (15 November 00UTC - 17 November 00UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times. The box marks 0.25x0.25 degree centred on Miami. While having a lot of rainfall in the region, the control forecasts missed the local maximum over southern Florida, butt he concatenated 6-hour forecasts agree well with NEXRAD.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation (15 November 00UTC - 18 November 00UTC) from different initial dates. (2-day EFI is not available.)
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 48-hour precipitation (15 November 00UTC - 17 November 00UTC) a 0.25x0.25 box centred on Miami. Mean of observations - green hourglass, Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, ENS control –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate (to be added) – cyan box-and-whisker. Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts. The observation in Miami was 215 mm and the area mean from NEXRAD was 179 mm.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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