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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
1. Impact
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During the two first weeks in September two heatwaves affected Western Europe. |
In the first week the temperatures in Portugal and Spain reached 44-46C, |
which broke the September record for Europe. During the heat wave severe wildfires |
appeared. In the second week a heatwave affected British Isles with the warmest September temperatures in the past 100 year recorded. |
2. Description of the event
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The sequence of plots below show analyses of z500 and t850 from 8 to 15 September. The highest temperatures during the first phase were reached on 5-7 September in Portugal and Spain. In the second phase the warmest temperatures on the British Isles were on 13-14 September.
The plot below shows a Howmuller diagram of z500 (zonal anomaly) averaged between 35N and 55N, spanning from 20 August to 20 September.Both heatwaves had a trough over the eastern Atlantic and ridge over Europe bringing warm air northward.
The plot below shows the fire radiative power from the CAMS analysis from 6 September.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show 3-day EFI and SOT for 2-metre temperature during Phase 1 (5-7 September). The final plot shows the evolution of forecasts for 2-metre temperature for 5W-0W, 38N-42N for the same period.
The plots below show 3-day EFI and SOT for 2-metre temperature during Phase 2 (13-16 September).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below shows the verification on temperature anomalies for Phase 1.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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