Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Ivan
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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ATDnet lightning flash density (left) and ESWD reports (right).
ATDnet flashes - animation.
2. Description of the event
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Radar imagery from the Hail Suppression Agency in Bulgaria.
Radar animation reveals that the storm was very long-lived. It formed at around 14 local time (11 UTC) and could be tracked by this radar station till about 19:00 local time (16 UTC), about 5 hours in total.
Radar animation of the storm development. Data are from the radar station Bardarski Geran provided by the the Hail Suppression Agency in Bulgaria. All the times are in local Eastern European summer time (UTC + 3 hours).
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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These new parameters are derived from hourly model output and they will be tested in replacing current CAPE and CAPE-shear in the EFI product. An example that compares these new model outputs to the instantaneous CAPE and CAPE-shear for this case of severe convection are shown below.
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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