Status Status:Ongoing analysisFinalised Material from: Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Picture
1. Impact
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Heavy monsoon rain during the first week of September led to flooding in north-eastern Pakistan, and has killed about 280 people. |
2. Description of the event
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Gallery includeLabel mnth sort comment title Weekly anomalies of precipitation
Gallery includeLabel mnth_p sort comment title Probabilty for the upper tercile for weekly precipitation
The plots above shows the probability of precipitation greater than the 66th percentile of the climatology. Here there is a signal of wet conditions already 2-3 weeks in advance. The signal however not stronger than in other areas where it did not verify.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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The plots above shows the discharge forecast for River Chenab at a point close to Multan. The first 15 days is driven by the precipiation from each ensemble member and the later part of the forecast is driven by the climatology. The forecast from 1 September already has a signal for flooding, as expected from the rainfall forecasts above.
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