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Fig8.1.16.1-2(Right):  Top: Ensemble probabilities (not including HRES) for the intensity of this tropical cyclone to fall into each of the 5 tropical cyclone intensity categories shown at 6hr intervals to 10 days.  Centre and Bottom:  Lagrangian meteograms of distribution the full ensemble (in box and whisker format), the ensemble mean (dotted line) and HRES (solid line) for the maximum 10m mean wind speed (ktskt) associated with tropical cyclone 07S, and MSLP (hPa) at the Tropical Cyclone 07S pressure centre.  Note the categories used on the top panel are derived on the basis of the variable shown on the middle panel.

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Fig8.1.16.1-3: Web chart of tropical cyclone activity (Including genesis) showing tropical storm strike probability. The web chart is clickable (shown by an arrow icon in top left corner) and a click at any location gives meteograms, plumes, wavegrams or a sequence of EFIs and CDFs extreme forecast indices (EFI) and Cumulative distribution functions (CDF) for 2m temperature, rainfall and 24hr maximum wind gust.  Forecast for 00UTC 10 January 2018, T+72 ensemble data time 00UTC 8 January 2018.   

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Fig8.1.16.1-5: Sample CDFs (at the point indicated by the arrow in Fig8.1.16.1-3) for the same ensemble forecast as shown in Fig8.1.16.1-3.  Note the high extreme forecast index EFI for 24hr maximum 10m wind gust, which can be very useful, though the user needs to be aware of the innate difficulties of representing the absolute values of winds around tropical cyclones.

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