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http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/02/12/sc/
1. Impact
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On the 12 February a storm hit Ireland, Wales and western England. The storm caused power cuts 65000 homes on Ireland and 50000 homes in Wales. |
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Dalmatian plots for maximum wind speed at ~1km around a cyclonic feature. The first plot is from 12 February 00 UTC, valid 12 hours later. The following plots are with one day apart. All forecasts had a lot of cyclonic features with high wind speeds over the western Atlantic for this day. $ 4 days before the event the ensemble seems to converge to a position west of Ireland. One issue for this case is the phase speed of the cyclone, which seems to be too low. Some of the longer forecasts had a deep cyclone one day before that did not materialised.
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Extreme index forecasts for maximum wind gusts valid on the 12 February, from 1 (12 Nov 00UTC), 2, 3, 4, 5 days before the event. The figures also includes the values for the 99th percentile. All all lead times have relatively high EFI is present in the area.
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- Two days later, another storm hit the British Isles, see Windstorms: 201402 - Windstorm - British Isles (Valentine's day)
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