Status:Ongoing analysisFinalised Material from: Tim, Linus
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Picture
1. Impact
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A blizzard hit the region Annapurna in Nepal around the 14 October, killing at least 39 hikers. |
The snapshot from Goggle Map below shows the location.
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The heavy precipitation was mainly due to the aftermaths of the tropical cyclone Hudhud, with which made landfall on the Indian east-coast on the 12 October (see below for track forecast after the landfall). The cyclone formed on the 8 October in the Bay of Bengal.
The plots below shows 12-hour forecasts of MSLP and precipitation for the days before the blizzard.
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below shows the 24-hour precipitation for the 14 October. The hourglass symbol marks the Annapurna district.
Gallery includeLabel hres14 sort comment title 24-hour precipitation (14 Oct)
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Gallery includeLabel mnth_precip sort comment title Weekly precipitation anomalies 13-20 October
The plots above show weekly means of precipitation anomalies. Already the forecast from 6 October had a strong anomaly for northern Nepal.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
Gallery includeLabel cdf_tigge sort comment title CDF for precipitation 28.8N, 84E
The plots above show CDF of precipitation for 28.8N, 84E for different centres in the TIGGE data base. For all lead times, the ECMWF ensemble is much more extreme than the other centres. This could be due to model and/or archived resolution or different meteorological conditions.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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- A very good prediction of the extreme event. Probably due the the predictability of the tropical cyclone, which formed 6 days before the snowfall event.
6. Additional material
- Newsletter article in Winter 2014/2015