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Status:
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finalized Material from: Linus, Federico Grazzini
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
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| Excerpt |
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On Saturday 12 September southern France was hit but flash floods and the day after Genoa in north-western Italy was hit. 2 people were killed in the Emilia Romagna region. On 14 September a strong convective cell affected Veneto (NE Italy) and created hailstones in size of tennis balls. |
2. Description of the event
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The incredible thing is that the precipitation has been generated by a single MCS, classifiable as "V-shape", that formed upstream the Apennines in a warm and humid south-westerly blowing from the Gulf of Genova. It started ad 18 UTC and it lasted approximately up to 6 UTC, just changing shape and moving a little bit, but substantially remained almost stationary. See the picture below taken at 00UTC 14/09/2015. This has generated more than 300mm, recorded by many stations on the upper part of those basins. The precipitation intensity was also striking with 4 stations recording more than 110mm per hour and almost 10 stations recording more than 80 mm per hour. See the map of the total precipitation fallen during the event between 13 and 14/09 over the station network of Emilia-Romagna
3-hour precipitation from RADAR accumulation:
3-hourly precipitation from 1 km COSMO model (from Suisse):
The plot below shows the radar data from Veneto 1440 on 14 September, with the supercell that caused the hailstorm (thanks to Massimo Enrico Ferrario):
Observed precipitation Saturday (12 Sept 06- 13 Sept 06z)
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Observed precipitation Monday (14 Sept 06z - 15 Sept 06z)
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
Saturday (12 Sept 06- 13 Sept 06z)
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The plots below show forecasts from 13 Sept 00z, 12 Sept 12z ans 12 Sept 00z. (O-suite on first row and e-suite on second)
3.3 ENS
Saturday 12 Sept
EFI and SOT for precipitation (from 12 Sept 00z and 11 Sept 00z)
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