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Description of the upgrade

Cycle upgrade 47r3 will bring improvements to the assimilation and observations usage and a significantly improved physical basis for moist processes, necessary to facilitate further development of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and future application at convection-permitting resolutions.

The upgrade will bring more accurate upper air fields, particularly tropical winds, as well as precipitation in convective regimes. Several new convection-related products will be available and systematic errors are reduced for wind gusts and visibility for fog and precipitation.

Implementation scheduled for
Note

Implemented: 06 UTC run on 12 Oct 2021

, TBC

Page updated on

#IFS47r3 #newfcsystem

@ECMWF

@ECMWF 

News

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NEWS!

Updated recommended software versions and information on test data from release candidate added

Specific information on new CAPE and CIN parameters published

A webinar giving an updated overview of Cycle 47r3 with a focus on the scientific developments, the meteorological impact and new products has been scheduled for

13 September 2021, 15:00 UTC

To join please register on the event page.

Changes to the grid descriptions of analysis parameters ci and sst

Recording and slides of the webinar Cycle 47r3 overview and more information on the meteorological impact are now available.

IFS Cycle 47r3 content and implementation timeline announced. The new cycle will be introduced in a first webinar on

6 July 2021 at 8:00 UTC: Join the webinar on Zoom

A recording of the webinar will be made available after the event

 Change to GRIB 2 Master Tables Version with the fix implemented on 22 Feb 2022

 Fix of low-level T/q in fog conditions announced

 Cycle 47r3 has been implemented with the 6 UTC run on 12 October 2021

Information on meteorological impact updated and a document on 47r3 Impact on Surface Weather representation published

 Specific information on peak wave period published

Expand
titleSee older news ...

 

 ENS and HRES scorecards have been added

 Updated recommended software versions and information on test data from release candidate added

 Specific information on new CAPE and CIN parameters published

 A webinar giving an updated overview of Cycle 47r3 with a focus on the scientific developments, the meteorological impact and new products has been scheduled for

13 September 2021, 15:00 UTC

To join please register on the event page.

 Changes to the grid descriptions of analysis parameters ci and sst

 Recording and slides of the webinar Cycle 47r3 overview and more information on the meteorological impact are now available.

 IFS Cycle 47r3 content and implementation timeline announced. The new cycle will be introduced in a first webinar on

6 July 2021 at 8:00 UTC: Join the webinar on Zoom

A recording of the webinar will be made available after the event


Timeline of the implementation

Gliffy Diagram
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nameimplementation-timeline-47r3
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Datasets affected

  • HRES (day 1-10)

  • ENS (day 1-15)

  • HRES-WAM (day 1-10)

  • ENS-WAM (day 1-15)

  • ENS-extended (day 16-46)

Resolution

Unchanged from previous IFS cycle.


Component

Horizontal resolution

Vertical resolution
[levels] 

Atmosphere

HRES

O1280

~9 km

137

ENS

O640

~18 km

137

ENS extended 

O320

~36 km

137

Wave

HRES-WAM

0.125°

~14 km

-


ENS-WAM 

0.25°

~28 km

-


ENS-WAM Extended

0.5° 

~55 km

-

Ocean

NEMO 3.4

0.25°

~28 km

75

Meteorological content

Assimilation

  • New RTTOV coefficients for hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders

  • New height reassignment for low level AMVs

  • Add representativeness error in the total observation error for Aeolus

  • Weak-constraint 4D-Var active in the stratosphere for the EDA system

Observations

  • Assimilation of all-sky AMSU-A

Model

  • A more consistent formulation of boundary layer turbulence, shallow convection and sub-grid cloud including:

    • Simplified and more consistent treatment of sub-grid cloud saturation adjustment

    • Consistent treatment of subgrid cloud from boundary layer turbulent mixing without separate statistical cloud scheme

    • Consistent computation of mixing height for unstable turbulent boundary layer and convection scheme

    • Change from double to single iteration of turbulent mixing scheme

  • New method for computing inversion strength based on moist entropy for distinguishing stratocumulus and cumulus cloud

  • Limit to convective overshoot based on tropopause stability

  • New parametrized deep convection closure with an additional dependence on total advective moisture convergence

  • Change from exponential-exponential cloud vertical overlap to random-exponential overlap in closer agreement with observations

  • Include vapour deposition process for growth of falling snow particles 

  • Change from linear to cubic interpolation for cloud liquid, ice, rain and snow semi-Lagrangian departure point calculations, including 3D quasi-monotone limiter

  • Interpolation of cloud and precipitation to radiation grid changed from in-cloud to grid-mean

  • Inclusion of full supersaturation adjustment in the ensemble SPPT stochastic perturbations

  • Mass-weighting and relaxation timescale introduced for ensemble SPPT stochastic perturbations

  • Revised simplified moist physics and associated tangent-linear and adjoint

  • Bug fix for vertical interpolation of 3D aerosol climatology

  • Improved calculation of extinction coefficients for near-surface visibility in fog, rain and snow

  • Revised gustiness parametrization

  • Improved calculation of the peak wave period for multi-peaked ocean wave spectra

Meteorological impact

  • Extratropical upper-air geopotential and wind in the first few days of the forecast improved by a few percent

  • Tropical upper-air winds throughout the medium-range improved by up to 7%, reducing with lead time

  • Tropical upper-air temperature improved in HRES, but degraded CRPS in ENS due to small (~0.2K) increase in bias. Low level temperatures (including 850hPa and 2m) temperature approximately neutral versus observations but degraded versus analysis over subtropical ocean.

  • Tropical Cyclones: 10% improvement in position error in HRES and ENS and weaker central pressure

  • Improved MJO prediction and amplitude

  • More realistic precipitation PDF in strongly convective regimes

  • Increased convective precipitation (reduced dry bias) in arid regions

  • Increase in small scale structure for cloud and precipitation but total cloud cover degraded

  • Reduced biases for wind gusts and for visibility in fog, rain and snow

The separate document 47r3 Impact on Surface Weather representation highlights the changes with 47r3 in the characteristics of many frequently used forecast fields and products.

Evaluation

Scorecards presenting the new cycle performance are regularly updated: 

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Timeline of the implementation

Gliffy Diagram
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nameimplementation-timeline-47r3
pagePin4

Meteorological content

Assimilation

  • New RTTOV coefficients for hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders
  • New height reassignment for low level AMVs
  • Add representativeness error in the total observation error for Aeolus
  • Weak-constraint 4D-Var active in the stratosphere for the EDA system

Observations

  • Assimilation of all-sky AMSU-A

Model

  • A more consistent formulation of boundary layer turbulence, shallow convection and sub-grid cloud including:
    • Simplified and more consistent treatment of sub-grid cloud saturation adjustment
    • Consistent treatment of subgrid cloud from boundary layer turbulent mixing without separate statistical cloud scheme
    • Consistent computation of mixing height for unstable turbulent boundary layer and convection scheme
    • Change from double to single iteration of turbulent mixing scheme
  • New method for computing inversion strength based on moist entropy for distinguishing stratocumulus and cumulus cloud
  • Limit to convective overshoot based on tropopause stability
  • New parametrized deep convection closure with an additional dependence on total advective moisture convergence
  • Change from exponential-exponential cloud vertical overlap to random-exponential overlap in closer agreement with observations
  • Include vapour deposition process for growth of falling snow particles 
  • Change from linear to cubic interpolation for cloud liquid, ice, rain and snow semi-Lagrangian departure point calculations, including 3D quasi-monotone limiter
  • Interpolation of cloud and precipitation to radiation grid changed from in-cloud to grid-mean
  • Inclusion of full supersaturation adjustment in the ensemble SPPT stochastic perturbations
  • Mass-weighting and relaxation timescale introduced for ensemble SPPT stochastic perturbations
  • Revised simplified moist physics and associated tangent-linear and adjoint
  • Bug fix for vertical interpolation of 3D aerosol climatology
  • Improved calculation of extinction coefficients for near-surface visibility in fog, rain and snow
  • Revised gustiness parametrization
  • Improved calculation of the peak wave period for multi-peaked ocean wave spectra

Meteorological impact

  • Extratropical upper-air geopotential and wind in the first few days of the forecast improved by 1-2%
  • Tropical upper-air winds throughout the medium-range improved by 1-4%
  • Tropical upper-air temperature improved in HRES, but degraded CRPS in ENS due to small (~0.2K) increase in bias. Low level temperatures (including 850hPa and 2m) temperature approximately neutral versus observations but degraded versus analysis over subtropical ocean.
  • Tropical Cyclones: Small improvement in position and central pressure absolute error
  • Improved MJO prediction and amplitude
  • More realistic precipitation PDF in strongly convective regimes
  • Increased convective precipitation (reduced dry bias) in arid regions
  • Increase in small scale structure for cloud and precipitation but total cloud cover degraded
    • Reduced biases for wind gusts and for visibility in fog, rain and snow

    New and changed parameters

    New parameters

    The table contains the list of parameters expected to be available with the model implementation. They will be available as part of the test data.

    Param ID

    Short

    Name

    name

    Name

    units

    Units

    Component & type

    GRIB edition

    Level

    Lev. type

    MARS

    Added to

    Catalogue

    catalogue

    ecCharts

    Dissemination

    Diss.

    2280451

    trpp

    Tropopause pressure

    Pa

    HRES FC

    2

    sfc

    (tick)

    (tick)

    TBD

    TBC

    (tick)

    228020

    degm10l

    -10 degrees C isothermal level (atm)

    m

    HRES FC
    ENS CF/PF

    1

    sfc

    (tick)

    (tick)

    TBD

    TBC

    (tick)

    228131

    u10n

    Neutral wind at 10 m u-component

    m s-1

    ENS CF/PF

    1

    sfc

    (tick)

    (tick)

    TBD

    TBC

    (tick)

    228132

    v10n

    Neutral wind at 10 m v-component

    m s-1

    ENS CF/PF

    1

    sfc

    (tick)

    (tick)

    TBD

    TBC

    (tick)

    2282312

    mlcape50

    Mixed-layer CAPE in the lowest 50 hPa

    J kg-1

    HRES FC
    ENS CF/PF

    2

    sfc

    (tick)

    (tick)

    TBD

    TBC

    (tick)

    2282322

    mlcin50

    Mixed-layer CIN in the lowest 50 hPa

    J kg-1

    HRES FC
    ENS CF/PF

    2

    sfc

    (tick)

    (tick)

    TBD

    TBC

    (tick)

    2282332

    mlcape100

    Mixed-layer CAPE in the lowest 100 hPa

    J kg-1

    HRES FC
    ENS CF/PF

    2

    sfc

    (tick)

    (tick)

    TBD

    TBC

    (tick)

    2282342

    mlcin100

    Mixed-layer CIN in the lowest 100 hPa

    J kg-1

    HRES FC
    ENS CF/PF

    2

    sfc

    (tick)

    (tick)

    TBD

    TBC

    (tick)

    2282352

    mucape

    Most-unstable CAPE

    J kg-1

    HRES FC
    ENS CF/PF

    2

    sfc

    (tick)

    (tick)

    (tick)

    TBC

    (tick)

    2282372

    mudlp

    Departure level of the most unstable parcel expressed as Pressure

    Pa

    HRES FC
    ENS CF/PF

    2

    sfc

    (tick)

    (tick)

    TBD

    TBC

    (tick)

    260290

    cat

    Clear air turbulence (CAT)

    m2/3 s-1

    HRES FC

    2

    ml

    (tick)

    (tick)

    TBD

    TBC

    (tick)

    1Please note that the current MARS client, built with MIR 1.7.2, will issue a warning when interpolating parameter 228045 (Tropopause pressure). As MIR uses the default interpolation for this parameter in any case, this warning can be ignored and will

    be addressed in a future version of the MARS client.

    be addressed in a future version of the MARS client.

    2For more details see 47r3 new parameters: CAPE and CIN

    Changes to existing GRIB parameters

    In Cycle 47r3 the grid descriptions for the surface fields ci and sst in the analysis are now identical to those of the land-sea mask (lsm). 

    Param ID

    Short Name

    Name

    Component & type

    GRIB edition

    Level type

    GRIB 1
    Section 2
    Octets

    ecCodes key

    47r2

    47r3

    31

    ci

    Sea ice area fraction

    HRES AN

    1

    sfc

    21-23

    longitudeOfLastGridPoint

    359930

    359929

    34

    sst

    Sea surface temperature

    HRES AN

    1

    sfc

    21-23

    longitudeOfLastGridPoint

    359930

    359929


    Technical content

    Changes to GRIB encoding

    The GRIB model identifiers (generating process identification number) for cycle 47r3 will be changed as follows:

    GRIB 1

    Section 1

    Octets

    GRIB 2

    Section 4

    Octets

    ecCodes key 

    Component

    Model identifier

    47r2

    47r3

    6

     14  

    generatingProcessIdentifier

    Atmospheric model

    152

    153

    6

     14  

    generatingProcessIdentifier

    Ocean wave model

    117

    118


    For all parameters in GRIB 2 the Master Tables Version Number

    2For more details see 47r3 new parameters: CAPE and CIN

    Changes to existing GRIB parameters

    In Cycle 47r3 the grid descriptions for the surface fields ci and sst in the analysis are now identical to those of the land-sea mask (lsm). 

    Param IDShort NameNameComponent & typeGRIB editionLevel typeGRIB 1
    Section 2
    OctetsecCodes key47r247r331ciSea ice area fractionHRES AN

    1

    sfc21-23longitudeOfLastGridPoint359930

    359929

    34sstSea surface temperatureHRES AN1sfc21-23longitudeOfLastGridPoint359930

    359929

    Technical content

    Changes to GRIB encoding

    The GRIB model identifiers (generating process identification number) for cycle 47r3

    will be changed as follows:

    GRIB

    1

    2

    Section 1

    Octets

    GRIB 2
    Section 4
    OctetsModel identifier

    ecCodes key 

    Component

    Master Tables Version Number

    47r2

    47r3

    6

     10 

     14  

    tablesVersion

    generatingProcessIdentifierAtmospheric model152153
    6 14  generatingProcessIdentifierOcean wave model117118

    For all parameters in GRIB 2 the Master Tables Version Number will be changed as follows:

    5

    27/28

    The modification implemented with the 6 UTC run on 22 Feb 2022 included an update to the newer ecCodes package 2.24.2 which makes use of the latest standard, with tables version 28, rather than version 27. This change will be transparent in terms of ecCodes usage. As tables version 28 is backward compatible with version 27, all output data can still be handled with the software versions recommended below. Users will only see a difference if they check the tables version explicitly. 

    GRIB 2
    Section 1
    OctetsecCodes key Master Tables Version Number47r2
    47r3
     10 tablesVersion527

    Correct decoding of all 47r3 GRIB 2 parameters requires ecCodes 2.23.0 or

    newer

    newer. Users are encouraged to check their data processing with the test data provided.

    Software

    The software packages listed below are required to provide full support for IFS Cycle 47r3 and will become the default on ECMWF platforms on Wednesday 6 October 2021, see Change of default versions of ECMWF software packages - October 2021:

    ecCodes 2.23.0
    Magics 4.9.0
    Metview 5.13

    CDO 1.9.10-01

    Users are strongly encouraged to test their software applications and data processing chain with the new versions of the various software packages before this change.

    Availability of 47r3 test data

    Test data in MARS

    IFS Cycle 47r3 beta test data is available from MARS with E-suite experiment version (expver) 0076 (MARS keyword EXPVER=0076): 

    Only

    registered users of ECMWF computing systems

    users registered with access to MARS will be able to access

    the

    these test data sets

    in MARS

    . The data should not be used for operational forecasting.  Please report any problems you find with this data via the ECMWF Support Portal.

    The release candidate test data and products, available from , will be generated daily, shortly behind operational high resolution and ensemble runs and based on the operational dissemination requirements

    . The availability of the test data does not follow any strict scheduleAccess to the test PREd is provided at https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/esuite/products/requirements/

    . The availability of the test data does not follow any strict schedule.

    For longer time series available beta test data from 15 April can be used, with a complete set of products from 23 August.

    Test data in dissemination

    Cycle 47r3 test data from the release candidate stage will be available through the test dissemination system, starting from the 00Z run on . Users with access to ECPDS and the Products Requirements Editor (PREd) can login to the test system at https://ecpds-xmonitor.ecmwf.int/  (or https://msaccess.ecmwf.int:7443) and trigger the transmission of test products in the usual manner. To receive the test products, users have to have their firewall open to the relevant ECPDS Data Movers:

    )

    •  )

    The IFS Cycle 47r3 test products are available as version number 76 (file names ending with '76') and are intended to be generated shortly behind real-time. The test products will be based on the operational dissemination requirements from  and will be available for HRES, HRES-WAM, ENS, ENS-WAM and ENS extended.

    note

    The new parameters of Cycle 47r3 listed above will become available in dissemination after the implementation date.

    Any changes made in the test system will not be ported to operations on implementation day. Access to the operational PREd will be closed at 9 UTC on 11 October. Any changes to the operational requirements can be implemented after 10 UTC on 13 October.

    The test PREd will be closed on 22 October.

    If you don't have access to the ECPDS system or PREd or should you require any assistance with IFS Cycle 47r3 test dissemination products, please contact us via the Support Portal.

    Graphical display of test data in ecCharts

    Layers of IFS cycle 47r3 release candidate test data will become available in ecCharts on . Cycle 47r3 layers are identified by the label

    "0076" in their title and a black border around test data layers for better visual identification

    "0076" in their title and a black border around test data layers for better visual identification. Please note that vertical profiles and meteograms in ecCharts will always be based on operational data. However, Cycle 47r3 based vertical profiles and meteogram will become available in the web charts browser, see below.

    Web charts based on test data

    The ENS meteograms and vertical profiles based on IFS cycle 47r3 release candidate test data will become available on .

    WMO Essential and Additional test data

    IFS cycle 47r3 WMO Essential test data starting from the 00Z run on is available at ftp://wmo:essential@xpds.ecmwf.int and WMO Additional test data at ftp://xpds.ecmwf.int using the relevant WMO user id and password.

    Time-critical applications

    Option 1 - simple time-critical jobs

    Member State users of the  "Simple time-critical jobs" framework can test that their scripts will work with the IFS Cycle 47r3 test data by using the limited ECaccess 'events' set up for this purpose:

    1633

    e_ms090

    At this stage, the e-suite step 090 (HRES-BC) has been generated.

    1634

    e_ms144

    At this stage, the e-suite step 144 (ENS-BC) has been generated.

    1635

    e_ms240

    At this stage, the e-suite step 240 (HRES) has been generated.

    1636

    e_ms360

    At this stage, the e-suite step 360 (ENS) has been generated.

    1638

    e_ms1104

    At this stage, the e-suite step 1104 (ENS extended) has been generated.

    1639

    e_msrefc

    At this stage, the e-suite step refc (REFORECAST) has been updated.


    For these events, MSJ_EXPVER environment variable is set to 0076 and can be used to specify the IFS Cycle 47r3 test data in any MARS retrievals.

    These events are  intended for testing technical aspects only and should not be used for actual time-critical activities.

    Options 2 and 3

    Option 2 or 3 time-critical applications can be tested with the IFS Cycle 47r3 test data retrieved from MARS or received in Dissemination.

    Resources

    Video: Cycle 47r3 overview

    HTML
    <iframe width="326" height="190" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/
    iYsCVDabhx0
    sC5c4wXmS-I" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

    Presentation slides

    References

    , pp. 24-32. DOI:10.21957/3gt59vx1pb


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    titleRelated links


    Panel
    titleColor#ffffff
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    titleAll IFS cycles

    Children Display
    depth1
    pageChanges to the forecasting system

  • Bechtold, P., M. Bramberger, A. Dörnbrack, M. Leutbecher, L. Isaksen, 2021: Forecasting Clear Air Turbulence (CAT). ECMWF Newsletter, No 168.

  • David Duncan et al., Assimilation of AMSU-A in all-sky conditions. EUMETSAT/ECMWF Fellowship Programme Research Report, in preparation, 2021

    • All Physics developments and all new Grib parameters (algorithms) described in the IFS scientific documentation