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Daily precipitation totals for most extreme stations in Turkey for 24-hour precipitation ending on 11 and 12 August (not sure if the date is the start or end at accumulation period)August:
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour forecasts of precipitation from 9 August 00UTC to 13 August 00UTC, every 12 hour.
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The plots below show SYNOP observations (first plot) and HRES forecasts of 24-hour precipitation valid 10 August 00UTC - 13 August 00UTC, from different initial dates. The black square in the forecast plots indicate location of Bozhurt Bozkurt on the Black Sea coast that got 292 mm (over 2 days). Unfortunately we do not have a good SYNOP coverage in the region.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation 10-12 August, from different initial times.
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The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation valid 10 August 00UTC - 13 August 00UTC for BozhurtBozkurt. HRES –red, ENS CF – purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts.
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
72-hour precipitation from 10 August 00UTC for models participating in SEE-MHEWS-A. Aladin (left), ICON (middle) and NMMB (right). All models are initialised from ECMWF analysis.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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