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Medium-range output
A wide range of medium range (Day0-Day15) ensemble products are available. Users can observe the variation among ensemble member forecasts, and consistency with previous ensemble solutions. Output data is presented in many ways allowing assessment the probability of different forecast scenarios. In turn, this allows the forecaster to provide customers with tailored forecasts. These may be detailed (especially at shorter lead-times), but also with information on the uncertainty of that forecast.
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- individual ensemble members with post-processing highlighting similarities and/or differences between members.
- meteograms and plumes for user-selected locations.
- probabilities of track and intensity of tropical cyclone and extra-tropical cyclones.
- probabilities of parameters exceeding a threshold (e.g. temperature, gusts, snowfall).
- probabilities relating to precipitation type.
Availability
Dissemination schedule
Based Forecast Time 06UTC Time Available | Based Forecast time 12UTC Time Available | Based Forecast Time 18UTC Time Available | Based Forecast time 00UTC Time Available | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast Day 0 | 12:40 | 18:40 | 00:40 | 06:40 |
| Forecast Day 1 | 12:44 | 18:44 | 00:44 | 06:44 |
| Forecast Day 2 | 12:48 | 18:48 | 00:48 | 06:48 |
| Forecast Day 3 | 12:52 | 18:52 | 00:52 | 06:52 |
| Forecast Day 10 | 19:20 | 07:20 | ||
| Forecast Day 15 | 19:40 | 07:40 | ||
| Derived products Step 0 to 240 | 19:41 | 07:41 | ||
| Derived products Step 246 to 360 | 20:01 | 08:01 |
Forecast intervals and time ranges
| Forecast time step | Base Time | |
| T+0h to T+90h | Hourly | 00/06/12/18 UTC |
| T+93h to T+144h | 3-hourly | 00/06/12/18 UTC |
| T+150h to T+360h | 6-hourly | 00/12 UTC |
Additional Sources of Information
More information on products available from the atmospheric model ensemble, medium range forecast (Set III - ENS) are available on the ECMWF website.
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