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At least 11 people died after flash floods hit the Italian region of Marche on 15 September. Torrential rain caused rivers and streams to overflow and inundate coastal towns around the regional capital of Ancona. Around 400mm (16 inches) of rain - half a year's worth - were recorded in just a few hours. In addition to 11 dead, Italian newspapers report that around 50 people were being treated at hospitals for hypothermia and other injuries sustained in the floods. More than 180 firefighters assisted in the rescue efforts, evacuating people who overnight were forced to climb up trees or get onto their roofs to escape the rising water. Cantiano's streets turned into rivers as torrents of muddy water washed away cars and reached the first floors of houses. On Friday, many schools in Le Marche were closed.
2. Description of the event
A convective V-shape regenerating system in an incoming trough's very moist prefrontal part is probably the main cause of such an extreme event.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
raw ENS 6h | raw ENS 12h | ecPoint6h | ecPoint12h | COSMO raw | COSMO post | Merge | OBS (24h precipitation) | |
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BT: 15 Sept 2022 00 UTC T+ 24h |  |
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BT: 14 Sept 2022 00 UTC T+ 48h |
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BT: 15 Sept 2022 00 UTC T+ 18h |
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BT: 15 Sept 2022 00 UTC T+ 30h |
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Some quick comments related to the plots below:
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IFS soundings at T+0=12UTC 15th, from west to east coast (left to right), crossing into Marche. *Central point (42.94N,12.48E), which is near Perugia, was where the HRES max 6h precipitation T+0-6 = VT 12-18UTC 15th was located (about 50mm). See map on table below this one. Also, one sounding for T+6=18UTC.
| West coast | West-Centre | Centre | East-Centre | East Coast |
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Meteograms for the "Central point"* (from the above table), from four consecutive data times.
| Location of "Central Point"* wrt HRES orography (see pin) | 00Z 14th | 12Z 14th | 00Z 15th | 12Z 15th |
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3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
Report from Italian Aeronautical Militare regarding the performance of our forecast for this event: 15 sept 2022 Marche.pdf
6. Additional material
Photos yesterday afternoon from Cantiano's streets (Italy).
Some first data obtained from the most affected region with accumulated precipitation on 15 September 2022 (but it continued for more hours).
Satellite observation of the storm in Italy.
Precipitation rate (mm/h) estimations from radar in Italy at 19:25 UTC yesterday.
500 hPa geopotential and 850 hPa temperature. Base time 15 September 00 UTC and valid at T+18h. Satellite imagery and ESWD reports in the last 3h - animation
Blue circles denote excessive rain reports in the EWSD.
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Observations over Italy (UTC time on 15th Sep 2022 shown):
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
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