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The plots below shows the same as above but forecasts from DestinE. The performance for Destine (4.4km) is similar to the 9-km version above.
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The plots below shows EFI for 3-day precipitation (30 April-2 May) from different initial dates. There was an early signal in the EFI, but in the short-range the rainfall shifted to the south and did not saturate towards 1.
The plots below shows EFI for 3-day integrated water vapour flux (30 April-2 May) from different initial dates.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation for Caxias.
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While predicting extreme (around 99th percentile of the model climate) for Caxias, the forecast did not predict anything exceptional as seen in the observations. One can note that AIFS was somewhat higher than the ensemble mean for most forecasts.
The plot below shows the same as above but for Santa Maria. The plot from the concatenated analysis included to show the location of Santa Maria.
For Santa Maria the extreme was somewhat better captured, with the shortest forecast having an ensemble mean above the maximum in the model climatology but still only half of the measured 3-day precipitation. One can note that the control forecasts was always on the lower end of the ensemble in the short-range forecasts.
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