NEWS!
Recording of the webinar on Cycle 47r2 performance, products and technical aspects is now available
- Updated information on recommended software versions
- Graphical products based on 47r2 test data will become available on 6 April
Final webinar, focusing on latest model verification, new products, handling of ENS model level increase in dissemination and technical aspects, has been scheduled for
16 April 2021 at 8:00 (UTC). Join the webinar
Recording of the webinar on ENS model level handling in dissemination is now available
- Near real-time release candidate test will be available from 9 February
- Implementation date is 11th May 2021 06UTC cycle
- Current evaluation is now available
- Updated BUFR templates, please test your decoding software
- Tropical Cyclone tracks from the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles will be made available as WMO essential products.
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Implementation timeline
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Meteorological content
In this model cycle single precision for ENS (forecast up to d+46 and hindcast) and HRES (forecast) will be introduced. The idea to use single precision inEvaluation of 47r2
Score cards
The change to single precision is neutral in terms of HRES skill (less than a 0.3% change is typical for the troposphere, and the frequency of statistically significant differences is in line with what one might expect by chance), but there are benefits of the increased levels in the ENS.
The ensemble score card is overwhelmingly positive and statistically significant (occasional negative changes are small in magnitude.)
Scorecards presenting the new cycle performance are regularly updated:Tropical Cyclones in the Ensemble (all basins)
The ensemble scores for Tropical Cyclones show reduced intensity errors (largely associated with reduced bias: ~2hPa mean reduction in central pressure) in the medium-range, increased spread, and improved reliability as measured by the spread-error agreement. The cycle is neutral in terms of track errors.
Root mean square errors in the ensemble mean of tropical cyclone (TC) intensities and locations, along with the standard deviation (spread) of TC intensities and locations amongst the ensemble members. Results are based on all TC basins for the periods 20191125-20200228 and 20200510-20201130. The numbers at the top of the top panel indicate the number of TCs which could be evaluated at each lead time.
New parameters
The table contains the list of parameters expected to be available with the model implementation. They will be available as part of the test data.
Param
ID
Short
Name
Name
Unit
Component
& type
GRIB edition
Level
type
MARS
Added to Catalogue
ecCharts
Dissemination
1
sfc
aluvpi
UV visible albedo for direct radiation, isotropic component
(0-1)
ENS CF
1
sfc
aluvpv
UV visible albedo for direct radiation, volumetric component
(0-1)
ENS CF
1
sfc
aluvpg
UV visible albedo for direct radiation, geometric component
(0-1)
ENS CF
1
sfc
alnipi
Near IR albedo for direct radiation, isotropic component
(0-1)
ENS CF
1
sfc
alnipv
Near IR albedo for direct radiation, volumetric component
(0-1)
ENS CF
1
sfc
alnipg
Near IR albedo for direct radiation, geometric component
(0-1)
ENS CF
1
sfc
sdfor
Standard deviation of filtered subgrid orography
m
ENS CF1
1
sfc
sdor
Standard deviation of orography
m
ENS CF1
1
sfc
isor
Anisotropy of sub-gridscale orography
-
anor
Angle of sub-gridscale orography
slor
Slope of sub-gridscale orography
lsrh
Logarithm of surface roughness length for heat
1 Available at step 0 only.
Changes to existing BUFR parameters
HRES/ENS
Technical information is available at Update to Tropical Cyclone tracks.
Increase of ENS vertical resolution to 137 model levels
With this cycle upgrade the number of vertical model levels in ensemble forecasts (ENS) increases from 91 to 137, bringing it to the same vertical resolution as HRES. The L137 model level definitions and the correspondence between the L91 and L137 model levels are available online. Please note that the L137 model level data cannot be converted back to GRIB edition 1 without the loss of information.
Users getting ENS data on model levels are advised to check their data requests and processing. Getting all model levels, 137 instead of 91, will increase the amount of data by a factor of 1.5. This will affect resources like disc space, array sizes, processing and transfer times. Users should adapt any limits and requirements, e.g. wallclock time, memory, accordingly.
Users getting specific model levels should revise their selection based on the correspondence between the L91 and L137 model levels.
Changes to GRIB encoding
The GRIB model identifiers (generating process identification number) for cycle 47r2 will be changed as follows:
Section 1
Octets
Section 4
Octets
Changes to BUFR encoding.
A new BUFR sequence has been designed to accommodate the new TC information. Technical information is available at:
Update to Tropical Cyclone tracks
Software
To handle the data of Cycle 47r2 we recommend to use the ECMWF software packages
ecCodes 2.21.0
Magics 4.6.0
Metview 5.11.0
which will become the default on ECMWF platforms on Wednesday 5 May 2021, see Change of default versions of ECMWF and third-party software packages - May 2021. Users are strongly encouraged to test their software applications and data processing chain with the new versions of the various software packages before this change.
The minimum ECMWF software packages to provide full support for the new IFS Cycle 47r2 are ecCodes 2.20.0, Magics 4.5.3 and Metview 5.10.2.
Availability of IFS cycle 47r2 test data
The release candidate test data and products will be generated daily, shortly behind operational high resolution and ensemble runs and based on the operational dissemination requirements. The availability of the test data does not follow any strict schedule.
Test data in MARS
IFS Cycle 47r2 release candidate test data will be available from MARS with experiment version 0075 (MARS keyword EXPVER=0075) starting from the 00 UTC on
The data can be accessed in MARS from:
- HRES (class=od, stream=oper, expver=75)
- HRES-WAM (class=od, stream=wave, expver=75)
- ENS (class=od, stream=enfo, expver=75)
- ENS-WAM (class=od, stream=waef, expver=75)
Only registered users of ECMWF computing systems will be able to access the test data sets in MARS. The data should not be used for operational forecasting. Please report any problems you find with this data to Service Desk.
Test data in dissemination
IFS Cycle 47r2 test data from the release candidate stage will be available through the test dissemination system, starting from the 00Z run on . Users with access to ECPDS and the Products Requirements Editor (PREd) can login to the test system at https://ecpds-xmonitor.ecmwf.int/ (or https://msaccess.ecmwf.int:7443) and trigger the transmission of test products in the usual manner. To receive the test products, users have to have their firewall open to the relevant ECPDS Data Movers:
Internet transfers: 193.61.196.104 ( ecpds-xma.ecmwf.int ), 193.61.196.105 ( ecpds-xmb.ecmwf.int ) and 193.61.196.113 ( ecpds-xmc.ecmwf.int )
RMDCN transfers: 136.156.8.132 ( mspds-dm4.ecmwf.int ) and 136.156.8.133 ( mspds-dm5.ecmwf.int )
Access to the test PREd is provided at https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/esuite/products/requirements/
The IFS Cycle 47r2 test products are available as version number 75 (file names ending with '75'). The test products are intended to onOptions 2 and 3
Option 2 or 3 time-critical applications can be tested with theIFS Cycle 47r2 test data retrieved from MARS or received in Dissemination.ResourcesMultimedia | ||||||
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