Status: Finalized Material from: Linus, Lorenzo, Thomas H. Ivan, Nevena Zivanovic (Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia)
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
During the last weekend of January massive precipitation hit southern Europe. Several cities in northern Italy were flooded (e.g. Pisa) and Austria, Croatia and Serbia experienced severe snowfall. Slovenia experienced a severe ice storm in connection to the event (see additional material from Ivan). In connection to the same cyclone, Serbia recorded extreme winds (see additional material from Serbia).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25992800
2. Description of the event
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The figures above show the verification for the 24-hour accumulated precipitation for day 2-3 forecasts. (The figures are hard to read, I should upload the ps-files.)
Gallery includeLabel 4day_acc sort namecomment title 4-day accumulated precipitation
The figures above show the 4-day precipitation accumulation (30 Jan 06UTC -2 3 Feb 06UTC) from HRES. The first figure shows the observed values from the same period. The maximum over the southern Alps was well captured for the forecast from 30 Jan 00UTC, but the heavy precipitation for the Rome region was clearly missed. The heavy rainfall for the southern tip of Italy was captured by the forecast but not in the exact location. For earlier forecasts, the maximum precipitation was lower for the Alps and still missed for Rome.
3.3 ENS
EFI from 29 Jan 00UTC for 31 Jan to 5 Feb (day 1-5).
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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- Good forecast for precipitation amounts for southern Alps.
- Missed extreme precipitation for Rome area
- Good early warning for wind gusts in Serbia (see additional material)
6. Additional material
- Ivans presentation on the FD/RD meeting DJF2013-2014 with evaluation of the icestorm over Slovenia and snowfall over Austria ivan.ppt
- Presentation from UEF2104 by Nevena Zivanovic (Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia) about severe winds serbia_wind.pdf
- In Austria, the winter 2013/14 has been exceptionally warm and rather extreme in terms of the precipitation distribution to the south and north of the Alps. More information can be found here: ExtremeWinter_2013-14_Austria.pdf
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