Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Linus, Jonny
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 2-metre temperature valid 19 April, with a narrow band of warm air north of Svalbard.
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for Integrated water vapour flux ("Atmospheric river") valid 19 April,
The plot below shows evolution of 2-metre temperature forecasts for the position of Polarstern (84.3N, 14.75E), valid for 19 April 12UTC. The plot includes ENS forecasts (Blue box-and-whiskers), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker). The observation from Polarstern was -0.1C. The probability boundaries for the box and whiskers are (1-99, 10-90, 25-75 and median as dot). Large uncertainties was present in the medium-range, probably due to the relatively small scale of the warm air mass.
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