Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Seiyoung
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
On 8 and 9 August the region around Seoul was hit by extreme rainfall.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62462275
2. Description of the event
3. Predictability
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The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 7 August 00UTC to 10 August 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 6 August to 10 August 00UTC, every 24 hour.
The slides below shows precipitation measurements from KMA. The first plots focuses on the most intense phase of the rainfall, when one station got 136mm/1h.
The plots below show gridded precipitation from automated weather stations provided by KMA.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations from SYNOP (first plot), concatenated 6-hour forecasts (2nd plot) and HRES forecasts of 24-hour precipitation valid 8 August 00UTC - 9 August 00UTC, from different initial dates. The black 0.5 degree box is centred on Seoul.
The plots below show observations from SYNOP (to be added), concatenated 6-hour forecasts (1nd plot) and HRES forecasts of 72-hour precipitation valid 8 August 00UTC - 11 August 00UTC, from different initial dates. The black 0.5 degree box is centred on Seoul.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 1-day precipitation 8 August, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation valid 8 August 00UTC - 9 August 00UTC for the box around Seoul. Mean of observations - green hourglass, concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts.
The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation 8-10 August, from different initial times.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show weekly precipitation anomalies valid 8-14 August from different initial dates.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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