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Status:
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Finalised Material from: Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/12/23/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
During the second half of December Malaysia and Thailand were hit by heavy rainfall. The following flooding is said to be the worst for decades.
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below shows HRES forecasts and observations of 24-hour precipitation.
Gallery includeLabel verif sort comment title HRES precipitation verification
It looks like the model miss the precipitation over land.
3.3 ENS
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below shows weekly anomalies of rainfall for 15-21 December (left) and 22-28 December (right). The worst affected region is located in the upper-right corner of the plotted domain. The both weeks, a wet anomaly is present 2 weeks before.
The plots below shows MJO forecast from 4, 11 and 18 December. The rainfall seems to be connected to the onset of the MJO.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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