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Status:
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Finalized Material from: Ivan, Linus, DMI
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
An episode of extremely warm conditions were observed over the North Pole in mid April. The analysis suggests that the warmest period was between 15 and 17 April, when a southerly flow brought warm air. After that quite cold weather came back over the Pole.
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The figure below shows a short forecast for 2-metre temperatures and observations north of 70N. For the area of anomalous temperatures we only have observations from Svalbard and Franz Josefs Land, but no observations close to the North Pole.
3.3 ENS
The 17 April seems the warmest day over the Pole with daily mean temperature anomalies of the order of 20C (top panel in the figure below). The plot below shows the the EFI and SOT for 2-metre temperature for a 1-day forecast (bottom-left) and 7-day foecast (bottom-right)The predictability of this extremes is quite high. EFI for D+7 show a strong signal with positive SOT denoting a chance of temperatures to go beyond the climate.
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