Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Linus, ...
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
The plot below shows the track and intensity of Dorian in BestTrack (hourglass) and analysis (circle). The analysis missed the position at 28 August 12UTC when the cyclone was in the Caribbean Sea.
The assimilation cycle on 28 August 12UTC had problem to determine the position of the cyclone. This was caused by large first-guess errors, as seen in the plot below.
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The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, HRES - red, ENS control - blue, best track - black), position and intensity on 3 September 00UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 3 September (first plot) to 23 Augsut August (last plot). The cyclone was recognised as a tropical storm on 25 MarchAugust.Three main shifts in the tracks: Majority of members towards Bahamas (26 Aug), easterly path (28 August) and northward turn (31 August)
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The plot below shows the cyclone intensity in terms of central pressure (top), maximum wind speed (middle) and the propagation speed (bottom) for the forecasts from 3 September 00UTC (first plot) to 29 September (last plot), all 00UTC.
3.4 Extended-range forecasts
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Missed rapid intensification starting on 31 August
- Reasonable capturing of the probability for slow propagation over the Bahamas and the northward turn before Florida
- Short notice about cyclogenesis