Status Status:Ongoing analysisFinalised Material from: Fernando, Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/03/23/sc/ http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/03/25/sc/ http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/03/28/sc/ |
1. Impact
The wind storm Katie caused some damage across the south England on 28 March. The Metoffice issued a amber warning for the SE England (London region). Trees were uprooted, a crane was bent and incidents with scaffolding due to the force of the winds associated with Katie. Some flights were diverted from Gatwick in the early hours of 28 March. Wind gusts in excess of 50 kts were recorded mainly in the south coast and Channel during the passage of the wind storm Katie. Few places in the SE (inland) recorded gusts around 50 kts. Those maxima were observed between 04 and 06 UTC this morning
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The weather station located in the University of Reading recorded strong gusts during last night. A peak was observed at 6 UTC reaching 23 m/s (83 km/h or 45 kts). The forecast based last Saturday shows values falling within the range of observations.
The plot below shows observations of 24-hour maximum wind gusts (27 March 12z to 28 March 11z).
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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Gallery includeLabel hres_wg sort comment title 24-hour wind gusts and MSLP HRES
Significant quantities of 24h precipitation was associated with the passage of Katie. Most of these values refer to 12- or less hours when Katie was crossing England during the night of Monday. Many places recorded 20-30 mm and at least half-dozen had more than 30 mm. Looking at the sequence of HRES forecasts (below) starting 8 days before the event one can see a gradual shift of the pattern to east as we get closer to the event. The amounts in the range 20-30 (30-50) were systematically underestimated in particular over land.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 28 March.
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