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 Status:Ongoing analysisFinalised Material from: Linus, Calum, Tim

 

 

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spacePermissionINTRA

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/08/08/sc/

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1. Impact

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Excerpt
Between 6 and 7 August Skopje, the capital of Macedonia, was hit by flash floods and at least 21 people were killed. According to the reports, Skopje got more than 90 mm of rain in two hours. It is unclear when the rain fell, but satellite images suggest Saturday evening .

Reports about the damages can be found here:

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The plot below shows the 24-hour precipitation accumulations from observations received via GTS. The black dot is from Skopje and has more than 90 mm. Unfortunately we do not have any observations from Kosovo and cannot verify the northward extent of the cell.


3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The plots below show HRES forecasts for 24-hour precipitation (6 August 06z - 7 August 06z) and MSLP.

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