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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
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Pakistan was
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devastated by widespread floods in end of August 2022. Since the beginning of the monsoon season in June a third of the country has been badly affected by floods that have killed more than 1000 people and displaced 33 million. There are several important aspect that have caused these devastating floods
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, such as melting glaciers, an active monsoon season and a week of widespread intense rainfall.
https://floodlist.com/asia/pakistan-floods-update-august-2022
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The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation 23-25 August. The outlined box is the southern box used below.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation valid 23 August 00UTC - 26 August 00UTC for the southern box. Concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red, ENS CF - purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts. In the distributions the black square represents the median and diamond ensemble mean.
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The plot below is the same as above but for the northern box.
Compared to the model climatology, the event was more extreme in the northern box, even if the absolute magnitude was less. For this 3-day period (23-25 Aug), the forecast s from for the southern box from around 12 August started to pick up the risk of a wet period, but the really strong signal appeared only 1-2 days before the event started. For the northern box, the signal increase more gradually since 11 August.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The panels in the plot below show extended-range EFI/SOT valid for the week 22-29 August.
The plot below shows the weekly average precipitation in a box covering NW. India and Pakistan for summer 2022, in ERA5 and extended-range ensemble mean forecasts with different lead times valid for the same week. Also week 6 forecasts predicted on average a wetter-than-normal season, but only from week 2-3 and shorter the forecast captured the intra-seasonal variability.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
3.6 EFAS/GLOFAS
The plots below show GLOFAS output before the onset (20 August) of the floods (left) and after (29 August) the event (right). In the right plot the bottom panel is for the same point as in the left plot.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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