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2. Description of the event
In this evaluation we will focus on the 3-day period (3-5 January) and two regions of 1x1 degree size: One in north-eastern Sweden between Vidsel and Alvsbyn (centre point 65.7N, 20.6E) and one over central Estonia (centre point 58.8N, 25.5E).
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 31 December to 6 January.
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The plots below show analysis of 3-day temperature 3-5 January and forecasts from 1 December January from IFS with 9 km resolution the the DestinE run with 4.4 km resolution. The 4.4 km forecast has a smaller area with below -30C (brown).
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Graphcast - grey
PangyWeather - cyan
Model climate based on medium-range (cyan) based reforecasts with 1800 fields. Climate maximum as triangle (to be added).
The ensemble gained the signal of the extreme from 25 December to 27 December. The machine-learning models (especially PanguWeather) struggled with the magnitude of the extreme in the medium-range. All forecasts were warmer than the mean of the observations (based on the stations in Alvsbyn and Vidsel).
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Extended-range ensemble purple box-and-whisker
Model climate based on extended-range (pink) based reforecasts with 1800 fields. Climate maximum as triangle (to be added).
The plot below shows the same as above but for a 1x1 degree box in Estonia.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show forecasts of weekly temperature anomalies for 1-7 January.
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