Status:Ongoing analysisFinalised Material from: Linus, Mohamed, Fernando, Ivan
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/10/31/sc/ http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/03/sc/ http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/04/sc/ http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/05/sc/ |
Picture
1. Impact
During the first week of November the north-central Mediterranean coast and the southern Alps were hit by intense rainfall and showfall (in the Alps). The situation was caused by a developing trough. Also Morocco was affected by heay rain (see daily reports above).
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The unstable situation continued during November, see http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/13/sc/ and http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/17/sc/ - http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/11/18/sc/. |
2. Description of the event
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The plots above show the ongoing alert levels from EFAS where yellow is 2-5 years return period, red 5-20 and purple >20 years.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
For the rainfall on 3 Nov 06UTC to 4 Nov 06UTC, the plots below show forecast from operational HRES (cy40r1), e-suite HRES (cy41r1) and experiment with TC1279 (8km) and cycle 41r1. The amount of rain the the worst affected area in France increased with about 20% in the e-suite as expected from the changes in cloud physics. With the increased resolution we find a significant increase for this case.
3.3 ENS
Gallery includeLabel efi3 sort comment title EFI for 3-day precipitation
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
- The flow situation has similarities with 201401 - Rainfall (+ snowfall) - Italy, Croatia, Serbia, Austria
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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