Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Rebecca
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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Evaluation from NCEP: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/webinars/2022-10-06_Ian_Guidance.pdf
ERA5 maps of precipitation, and comparison with other Florida-landfall TCs in the past, plus a tweet from Brian McNoldy comparing the wind fields:
The plot below shows a map of GPM IMERG 24-hour total precipitation on 28th September 2022, the day of landfall:
The plots below show maps of HRES 24-hour precipitation totals on 28th September 2022, at different lead times ahead of 28th Sept:
The plots below show the difference between HRES and IMERG 24-hour precipitation totals on 28th September 2022, at different lead times:
The plot below show IMERG 24-hour rainfall for 29th September 2022:
The plots below show HRES 24-hour rainfall forecasts valid on 29th September, at different lead times:
The plots below show the difference between HRES and IMERG 24-hour precipitation totals on 29th September 2022, at different lead times:
The plots below show the 4-day rainfall from IMERG, and 4-day rainfall from observations (note 12-hour difference in period covered)
IMERG missing rainfall in central Florida/Orlando area? (unlikely this was in the last 12 hours of the observation period?)
