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Status:
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Finalized Material from: Ivan, Mohamed, Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/03/03/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/03/04/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/03/05/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2015/03/06/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
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Around the 6 March severe weather affected south-eastern Europe including heavy snowfall over Bulgaria. |
Winter scenes of deep snow covering the town of Troyan, Northern Bulgaria (red marker on the map) where the snow cover reached about 50 cm. The most affected area in Southern Bulgaria is denoted with the red oval; in some parts in the mountain the new snow cover was more than 1 m in height. Heavy wet snow damaged power lines, closed roads and blocked the access to many parts of the region. A sate of emergency was declared.
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Gallery includeLabel satir sort name
Before the event hit Bulgaria, Italy experienced strong winds. The plot below shows the time-series of observations at Florence Airport and the corresponding forecast.
The next figure shows the verification of 24-hour maximum winds gusts for 5 March.
Later, the system caused heavy precipitation on the Balkans as seen in the plot below.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The EFI for snowfall gave some signal 6 days in advance becoming quite strong (large EFI) 1-2 days before the event.
Gallery includeLabel 06 sort name title EFI snowfall VT: 06/03/2015
Gallery includeLabel 07 sort name title EFI snowfall VT: 07/03/2015
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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