Status:Ongoing analysis Material Status: Finalised Material from: Ivan
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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1. Impact
Weekly temperature anomalies over SE Europe were between 6 and 10C. The evolution of the heat wave can be seen on daily mean temperature anomalies.
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More than 100 mm in less than 48 hours were measured in some places in Northern Bulgaria and in the high valleys of Western Bulgaria, causing flash flooding. The worst affected regions were Samokov in western Bulgaria and Pleven and Lovech districts in Northern Bulgaria.
Rainfall totals 02/07/17 6Z-03/07/17 6Z (left), 03/07/17 6Z-04/07/17 6Z (middle) and 02/07/17 6Z-04/07/17 6Z (right). Credit to the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology in Bulgaria for providing high-density rainfall observations from its synoptic and climatological network.
2. Description of the event
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
HRES forecast of 48-hour rainfall totals valid from 06Z, 02/07/2017 to 06Z, 04/07/2017. From top left to bottom right HRES represents the following steps: t+30-78h, t+54-102h, t+78-126h, t+102-150h, t+126-174h, t+150-198h, t+174-222h. Observations are represented by the circles.
3.3 ENS
The EFI for 2-metre maximum temperature was pretty high for the hottest day, 1st July even 10-days in advance especially positive SOT which indicate a possibility of extreme heat.
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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