Status Status: Ongoing analysisFinalised Material from: Linus
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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1. Impact
During 26-27(?) heavy rainfall affected Greece, with flash floods in many places.
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The plots below show observations and the subsequent HRES forecasts valid 26 July 06UTC to 27 July 06UTC. From the plots below one gets the impression that the precipitation was overestimated in the forecasts, but we have to bear in mind the spare observation coverage. It is also worth to notice that the HRES consistently predicted very high values around Mount Olympus, and we do not have any observations from that area. There was many reports on flash-floods in different part of Greece on social media so it could well be that it was as severe as predicted.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation valid 26-28 June. Also the longest forecast had a signal about the wet event.
The plot below shows the evolution of ensemble (blue) and HRES (red dot) forecasts for 3-day (26-28 June) precipitation over Greece (37N-42N, 20E-24E). I strong signal appeared in the ensemble from 19 June onwards for a very wet period.
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Extended-range EFI for total precipitation is shown below. It adds value by providing information about how extreme the forecast anomalies are. Besides, positive SOT indicate that at least 10% of the whole ensemble goes for extreme precipitation above 99th model climate percentile.
The plots below shows the same as above but for z500.
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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