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Tropical Cyclone Diagrams - TCs

In operational environments, when output from several NWP models or ensembles are available, forecaster analysis of tropical cyclone forecasts is viable only when the information on position and intensity of tropical cyclones is The various positions and intensities forecast by an ensemble need to be displayed in a compact and easy-to-understand format.   The ECMWF tropical Tropical cyclone forecast products are designed to clearly provide both products are produced at 6hr intervals after post-processing of IFS forecast data.  For the current forecast they provide for each individual tropical cyclone: 

• deterministic and probabilistic information on the movement and intensity

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• an objective measure of the uncertainty in the current forecast.

This helps with the objective verification of tropical cyclone forecasts, and can also help with highlighting unreliable aspects.

Evaluation of TC tracks for the Extended range ENS is computed at 6hr intervals in the same way as medium range ENS and the outputs are consistent.

IFS model analyses of tropical cyclones rely on observed data alone

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.  There is no artificial scheme, such as vortex bogusing,

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to arbitrarily

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define the structure of the modelled tropical cyclone

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The output charts show the evolution of the position and intensity of tropical cyclones in the ensemble forecasts and provide an objective measure of the uncertainty in the current forecast.

RSMC official forecasts of tropical cyclones take precedence

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